I know this blog is supposed to be about private equity, but every once in a while you'll have to hear me rant and rave about something else. I couldn't help myself but to post about the NCAA tournament. My eyes have been glued to the TV screen these last few days. There is something about collegiate athletics and this tournament that makes me fanatical.
Every year I enter a few NCAA tourney pools. This year I only managed to make the deadline for one. It's got 60 entrants with a total pot of $600. I've been joining in this pool for several years. I've never won it, but I have come close. I have always placed in the top half and have only come as close as 5th or 6th to the top.
One thing I have noticed over the years is that it is very difficult to win the pool by picking a highly ranked frontrunning team. So many people pick these teams to make the final, that the winner is usually determined by the final score. The chances of picking both the winning team AND the closest final score is very small (knowledge of this difficulty in the odds leads to the funny phenomenon each year where some guys have multiple entries with the same winner but different final scores). Almost every year, the most popular team to reach the final is usually a frontrunner or a local favorite. Here are the number of people in my pool with the following winners picked:
16 Florida
11 Ohio State
10 Kansas
8 UNC
7 UCLA
4 Georgetown
2 Texas
1 Wisconsin
1 Pitt
Given that Florida, Ohio State, Kansas, and UNC seem to be the frontrunners, this year's pool is turning out to be no different than prior years. Given that there is heavy UCLA and Georgetown alumni in the pool, it likely those are local favorites.
I have used my typical strategy of picking a team that is not a Cinderella underdog but a team with a reasonable regional ranking who I do not think others will pick. Hopefully my readers won't hold it against me - I have Pitt winning the tournament over USC. The other two in my final four are Florida and Texas A&M.
Thus far I am still alive, although after the 1st round of play I am ranked 60th in my pool!
Pitt beating UCLA is a longshot, but then again, so is winning an NCAA pool.
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